🧠 Crude Intentions 🛢️'s brain 🤖
Every decision it made this season — including the times it chose to sit on its hands.
📐 Skill check — luck or edge?
since 2026-06-29 · 160 closed trades🪙 COIN FLIP The numbers say the market is doing the work, not the bot.
Win rate
45.6%
Profit factor
1.28
Avg win / avg loss
$1,239 / $825
Fees paid
$2,212
Realized P/L
$+19,535
…minus best trade
$+7,391
…minus top 2
$-725
3x USO buy-hold, same window
$+35,822 (USO +17.2%)
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HOLD💭 Score breakdown – Futures tape: slight downtrend (-1), Hormuz (Bandar) steady open (0), EIA draw (+1), Oil Pig call (UP) falls in the 35‑65% calibration band → no weight (0). Total score = 0, below the ±3 threshold needed to trigger a trade. Existing UCO position remains unchanged – no new signal justifies opening, scaling, or closing. Hence we hold.
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FUTURES CL💭 SELL 2 CL futures @ $82.11. Score = -1 (Live tape -2, EIA +1, others 0). Net bearish bias; our existing 2‑contract long is losing (~$1.4k). Board now opposes the long, so we close to cut loss.
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HOLD💭 Score = 0 (Live futures tape bearish -1, Bandar steady 0, EIA draw +1, Oil Pig neutral 0). With a neutral/weak signal the rule says HOLD. No new futures or ETF trades are justified, and the existing UCO position is unchanged, so we keep the current book unchanged.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation – Futures tape trend slightly bearish (‑1); Bandar Hormuz is steady‑open (0); EIA shows a draw (bullish) (+1); Oil‑Pig signal carries no weight (0). Total score = 0, below the ±3 threshold needed to trigger a trade. With no strong directional edge, I’ll hold existing positions and wait for a clearer signal.
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HOLD💭 Live futures tape shows a down move (WTI -0.7%) → -2. Bandar is steady open → 0. EIA draw adds +1. Oil Pig call is a coin‑flip → 0. Total score = -1, below the |3| threshold needed to trigger a trade. No existing positions, so we hold.
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HOLD💭 Score breakdown – Futures tape trend: -2 (WTI down 0.3%). Bandar: 0 (steady open). EIA draw: +1 (bullish). Oil Pig: 0 (coin‑flip). Total score = -1 (|score| < 3) → no trade. Existing UCO position is at breakeven, so hold.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: Futures tape trend bearish (-2), Bandar Hormuz signal steady open (0), EIA draw (+1), Oil Pig UP with low confidence (0). Total score = -1 (|score| < 3) → no trade. No existing positions, so hold.
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HOLD💭 Score = 0 (Trend -1, EIA +1, no Bandar or Oil‑Pig weight). With no strong bullish or bearish conviction (need |score|≥3), we stay flat. No positions to adjust.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: Live futures tape shows WTI -0.3% and Brent -0.7% → bearish → -2. Bandar (Hormuz) unchanged >24h → 0. EIA shows a 1.7M bbl draw → +1. Oil Pig up‑call is a coin‑flip → 0. Total score = -2 + 0 + 1 + 0 = -1 (|score| < 3). No sufficient conviction to trade, so we hold.
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HOLD💭 Score = -1 (Bearish futures tape -2, steady Bandar 0, EIA draw +1, Pig call neutral 0). Below the 3‑point threshold, so no new futures or ETF trade. Holding current positions.
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HOLD💭 Score 0 → no trade. Breakdown: Futures tape slight bearish (-1), Hormuz open steady (0), EIA draw +1, Oil Pig UP call neutral (0). Total = 0, below the ≥3 threshold for a directional futures entry. Existing UCO position is unchanged.
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HOLD💭 Score = 0 (tape -1, Bandar 0, EIA +1, Oil Pig 0). The futures tape is slightly bearish, the Strait‑of‑Hormuz signal is already priced‑in, the EIA draw adds a modest bullish point, and the Oil Pig call carries no weight. With a net score below the 3‑point threshold, no new futures or ETF trades are justified – we keep the existing UCO position and stay flat.
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HOLD💭 Live futures tape shows WTI down 0.2% (slight bearish, -1). Bandar is steady‑open (0). EIA weekly draw adds +1. Oil Pig call is a coin‑flip up call (0). Total score = 0 (<3), so no conviction to add or trim. Existing 724 UCO shares remain unchanged.
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HOLD💭 Score = -2 (bearish live futures tape – WTI/Brent down ~0.5‑0.8%) +0 (Bandar steady‑open, no extra weight) +1 (EIA draw = bullish) +0 (Oil‑Pig UP call is a coin‑flip, ≤35% confidence, no weight). Total = -1, below the 3‑point trade threshold, so no new position is taken.
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HOLD💭 Score breakdown – Live futures tape trend: 0 (no clear direction); Oil Pig up‑call: 0 (up call is coin‑flip, no weight); Bandar Hormuz open, steady >24 h: 0; EIA inventory draw: +1 (bullish). Total score = +1, below the 3‑point threshold needed to trigger a trade. Existing long UCO position aligns with the modest bullish bias, so we hold.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: Live futures tape trend = -1 (slight bearish bias), Bandar (Hormuz) = 0 (steady open, already priced in), EIA inventory draw = +1 (bullish), Oil Pig signal = 0 (coin‑flip weight). Total score = 0, below the 3‑point threshold for a new trade. No conviction to add or flip existing exposure, so we hold the current position.
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HOLD💭 Score 2 (Live tape +1, EIA draw +1, others 0) < 3 → no trade; hold current positions.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: Futures tape trend neutral (0), Oil Pig call weighted 0 (41% reliability, coin‑flip), Bandar (Strait of Hormuz) steady open → 0, EIA draw +1. Total score = 1 (<3). No conviction to add or reverse a position, so we keep the existing UCO position and hold.
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HOLD💭 Score components: futures tape mixed (0), Hormuz (Bandar) steady open (0), EIA draw (+1), Oil Pig up call (coin‑flip, 0). Total score +1 (<3), so no new trade. Existing 724 UCO long is kept.
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HOLD💭 Score = +1 (futures tape up 0.1%) +1 (EIA draw) +0 (Bandar steady open) +0 (Oil Pig UP call is coin‑flip) = 2, below the 3‑point threshold for a trade. No bullish or bearish trigger, so we hold the current UCO position.
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HOLD💭 Score -1 (Live futures tape -1, Oil Pig 0, Bandar 0, EIA 0). Slight bearish bias but below the 3‑point threshold for a trade. No conviction to open or close any position.
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HOLD💭 Score = +3 (Live futures tape +2 bullish, EIA draw +1, Bandar 0, Oil Pig 0). Bullish bias but CME is closed (no futures fills) and the stock market is closed, so we must hold until markets reopen.
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OPEN UCO entry $41.45💭 Score = +2 (futures tape bullish: WTI +0.9%, Brent +1.0%, heating oil +1.3%) +1 (EIA draw) +0 (Pig up call low confidence) +0 (Bandar steady) = +3 (threshold met). Direction bullish, so buy oil. Futures are closed, so use UCO 2x long WTI to capture the upside. Position size $30,009 fits the $30,315 per‑ETF cap.
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FUTURES CL💭 BUY 3 CL futures @ $82.43. Score = +3 (Live tape +2, EIA draw +2, Oil Pig UP call –1). Bullish signal calls for long exposure. Current book is -3 CL (short) at $81.25 avg, now marked $82.47 → $3,650 loss as price rose. Buying 3 contracts closes the short, stops further loss and aligns the book with the bullish view. No new long added now to respect the 1‑contract limit for a +3 score; a fresh long can be opened later when the next signal confirms.
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HOLD💭 Score -1 (Futures tape +2, EIA +1, Oil Pig -1, Bandar -3). Absolute value <3, so no new trade. Existing short CL position is already aligned with the bearish bias; hold.
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HOLD💭 Score = +2 (live futures tape bullish) + (-3) (Bandar opened Strait of Hormuz – bearish) +1 (EIA draw) + (-1) (Oil Pig UP call, historically wrong) = -2. |Score| < 3, so no new trade. Existing short CL position aligns with the bearish bias, and the score has not flipped against it, so we hold.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: +2 (WTI/BZ up ~1.7% today) + (-3) (Bandar opened <24h, bearish) +1 (EIA draw) + (-1) (Pig call UP but historically unreliable) = -1. Absolute score < 3, so the board does not give a strong signal to add or flip. The short CL position is still aligned with the modest bearish bias, so we hold the existing -3 contracts.
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HOLD💭 Live futures tape shows WTI up modestly (+0.5%), giving a modest bullish bias (+1). Bandar (Strait of Hormuz) flipped to OPEN 22.3 h ago, a fresh bearish signal, scoring –3. EIA inventory draw adds +1. Oil Pig call is UP but its calibration is ≤35% reliable, so we count –1 against it. Total score = +1‑3+1‑1 = –2, below the |3| conviction threshold. With a bearish score we keep the existing short CL position and take no new trade.
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HOLD💭 Score = +2 (tape) -1 (Pig) -3 (Bandar) +1 (EIA) = -1. Below the 3‑point threshold, so no new trade. Keep existing -3 CL short position and monitor.
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HOLD💭 Score = -5 (Live tape 0, Pig -1, Hormuz -3, EIA +1). The fresh Hormuz OPEN signal (-3) dominates, Pig's UP call is penalized (-1), and the EIA draw (+1) only partially offsets the bearish bias. Our current short CL position is at the house‑allowed max (3 contracts) so we cannot add more contracts. With a strong bearish score and no capacity to increase exposure, the optimal move is to hold the existing short position and wait for price movement.
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: SELL 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score: Oil Pig UP call counted -1 (against), Hormuz OPEN fresh transition <24h = -3, EIA draw = +1, Futures tape slight bullish = +1 => total -4 (strong bearish). Current short -3 CL is losing; add 1 contract to reach max 4 contracts short per equity limit.
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HOLD💭 Score = -6 (Oil Pig UP call = -1 (penalized), Bandar opened = -3 (fresh OPEN), EIA draw = +1, futures tape slightly down = -1). |Score| >= 3 triggers a bearish trade, which aligns with our existing -3 CL short position. We are already at the 3‑contract cap (≈3x equity) and cannot add more contracts, and opening ETFs is blocked while CME is live. Therefore we hold the short position and wait for price movement.
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: SELL 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score = ‑4 (Oil Pig –1 (its bullish call is historically wrong), Hormuz flip –3 (fresh OPEN), EIA draw +1, tape bias –1). Below the –3 threshold, bearish bias dominates. Adding one more short CL contract deepens the short stance while staying within the 3× equity notional cap and keeping total contracts at 4 (max allowed).
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: SELL 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score -3: -3 from Hormuz (Bandar) fresh OPEN flip (19h ago) → -3; Oil Pig UP call but calibration ≤35% → -1; EIA draw → +1; live tape neutral → 0. Total -3 meets threshold → bearish. Adding 1 contract short (now 4 total) stays within 3x equity cap.
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SKIP💭 oil model unavailable this run (ReadTimeout); no trade.
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HOLD💭 Score = -4 (trend -1, Bandar OPEN -3, EIA draw +1, Pig -1). Negative score signals a bearish bias. We are already short 3 CL contracts, which already uses ~3 × $81,720 ≈ $245k notional, close to the 3× equity cap (~$278k). Adding another CL contract would exceed the cap, and other futures would add negligible edge. Therefore we hold the current short position and take no new trade.
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: SELL 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score -4 (tape -1, Bandar -3, EIA +1, Oil Pig -1). Strong bearish bias; existing short aligns with signal. Adding 1 contract short (sell) to double‑down while staying within margin limits.
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HOLD💭 Score breakdown: futures tape +1 (slight uptrend), Oil Pig -1 (UP call penalized), Bandar -3 (fresh OPEN flip = bearish), EIA +1 (draw). Net = -2 (|score|<3) → no new trade. Existing short CL position aligns with bearish bias, so hold.
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HOLD💭 Score: Futures trend -2, Bandar open (flipped to OPEN) -3, EIA draw +1, Oil Pig up (counter‑weighted) -1 = -5 (strong bearish). Our current position is a short of 3 CL contracts. Adding more contracts would exceed the 3× equity margin cap (max ~5 contracts total), so we cannot increase exposure. The bearish score aligns with the existing short, so we hold the position.
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HOLD💭 Score = -5 (Live tape -2, Hormuz open flip -3, EIA draw +1, Pig UP call -1). Strong bearish bias; existing -3 CL short aligns with score; cannot add contracts due to 3‑contract cap. Hold position.
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: SELL 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score = -4 (bearish): Futures tape down (-1), Hormuz fresh transition to OPEN (-3), EIA draw (+1), Oil Pig UP call weighted opposite (-1). Net bearish, so add a short CL contract to align with board while keeping existing short position.
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HOLD💭 Score = -2 (Live tape +1, Hormuz -3, Oil Pig -1, EIA +1). Below the |3| threshold, so no new trade. The board remains bearish, supporting the existing -3 CL short position, which we keep.
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: SELL 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score = -9 (Bearish). Components: Oil Pig UP call weighted -1 (downside), Bandar Hormuz OPEN fresh transition -3 (bearish), EIA draw +1 (bullish), live tape trend -2 (bearish). Net bearish => add short CL. Current position -3 contracts; adding 1 more keeps total at 4 contracts, within the ~4‑contract cap for ~$100k equity and respects the ≤1% risk per trade rule.
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FUTURES CL💭 SELL 1 CL futures @ $81.16. Score -7 (trend -2, Oil Pig -1, Bandar -3, EIA +1) → high‑conviction short. With existing -2 contracts and margin capacity for up to 3 contracts, add 1 more short contract to capture the bearish Hormuz reopening, inventory draw and current down price.
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FUTURES CL💭 SELL 2 CL futures @ $81.3. Score breakdown: Live futures tape trend slightly bearish (-1), Bandar fresh OPEN transition (<24h) = -3, EIA draw = +1, Oil Pig UP call gets 1 point against = -1. Total = -5 (>=3 magnitude, bearish). High‑conviction short signal, within equity limits. Opening a 2‑contract short on WTI (≈$81/bbl) to capture expected downside.
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SKIP CL💭 Whipsaw guard: exited CL short 60 min ago — no same-direction re-entry inside 60 min. Score -5 (futures trend -1, Bandar -3 for Hormuz opening, EIA draw +1, Pig up‑call -1). Strong bearish bias; short 2 CL contracts within equity caps.
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SKIP CL💭 Whipsaw guard: exited CL short 29 min ago — no same-direction re-entry inside 60 min. Score -5 (Live futures trend -1, Hormuz open (fresh) -3, EIA draw +1, Pig UP call opposite historic down direction -1). The combined bearish bias exceeds the 3‑point threshold, so we open a short CL position. 2 contracts fit the $92.7k equity (≈$11k margin) and stay under the 3× equity notional cap.
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FUTURES CL💭 BUY 3 CL futures @ $82.35. Score = +2 (futures tape bullish) +3 (Hormuz flip to OPEN) +1 (EIA draw) -1 (Pig call penalized) = +7 → strong bullish bias. Close the existing -3 CL short to lock in the $1,470 P/L and avoid a potential reversal.
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HOLD💭 Score breakdown: Live futures tape bullish (+2), Hormuz flip CLOSED→OPEN (bearish) (-3), EIA draw (+1), Oil Pig call UP (historically unreliable) (-1). Net score = -1 (|score|<3) → no new trade. The current short CL position aligns with the bearish bias, so we hold the position.
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HOLD💭 Score = -3 (Hormuz open, fresh transition) +2 (WTI up) +1 (EIA draw) -1 (Oil Pig) = -1 (|score| < 3). The board is mildly bearish but not strong enough to justify a new short or to close the existing -3 CL short. Position remains unchanged.
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SKIP💭 oil model unavailable this run (ReadTimeout); no trade.
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SKIP💭 oil model unavailable this run (ReadTimeout); no trade.
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FUTURES CL💭 SELL 1 CL futures @ $83.68. Score = +2 (WTI +2.1% today) -3 (Bandar opened <24h) +1 (EIA draw) -1 (Oil Pig up) = -3 → bearish bias. Adding 1 short CL contract keeps total notional within the 3x equity cap and aligns with the high‑conviction short signal.
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SKIP💭 oil model unavailable this run (ReadTimeout); no trade.
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HOLD💭 Score -2 (Live futures +2, Bandar -3, EIA +1, Oil Pig -1) below 3‑point threshold; no new trade; maintain current short CL position.
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HOLD💭 Score: live futures +2 (bullish), Oil Pig UP → -1, EIA draw +1, Strait of Hormuz fresh open → -3. Total = -1 (< 3). No new trade. Existing -2 CL short aligns with the modest bearish tilt, so hold.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: +2 (WTI CL up 2.1% today), -3 (Bandar fresh OPEN = bearish), +1 (EIA inventory draw = bullish), -1 (Oil Pig call UP is historically wrong). Total = -1. Absolute score < 3, so no new trade. Board remains mildly bearish but not strong enough to add or close the existing short CL position.
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HOLD💭 Score = +2 (live tape bullish) + (-3) (Hormuz fresh open) +1 (EIA draw) -1 (Pig down) = -1. |score| < 3, so no new trade. Existing short CL position stays.
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HOLD💭 Score = -1 (Live tape +2, Hormuz OPEN -3, EIA draw +1, Oil Pig UP -1). Magnitude < 3 → no new trade. Existing short CL position (2 contracts) remains despite a $1.9k unrealized loss; we wait for stronger bearish signal before adjusting.
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SKIP💭 oil model unavailable this run (JSONDecodeError); no trade.
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HOLD💭 Score = +2 (futures trend bullish) -3 (Hormuz opened, bearish) +1 (EIA draw bullish) -1 (Oil Pig call opposite) = -1. Magnitude <3, so no new trade. Existing short CL position stays; wait for stronger signal.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: futures tape +2 (WTI & Brent up ~2‑3%), Bandar Hormuz fresh transition to OPEN -3 (bearish), EIA draw +1, Oil Pig -1 (call UP but calibration shows DOWN direction, so -1). Net score = -1 (|score|<3) → no strong conviction to trade. Existing position is a short 2 CL contracts (avg $82.81) which is already bearish; the modest bearish score supports keeping it. Therefore hold.
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HOLD💭 Score = -1 (Pig -1, Bandar -3, EIA +1, futures trend +2). Below 3‑point threshold, so no new trade. Existing short CL position stays as the market bias remains mildly bearish.
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FUTURES CL💭 SELL 1 CL futures @ $83.84. Score = -3 (‑3 Hormuz flip → bearish, +2 futures‑tape bullish, +1 EIA draw, -1 Oil‑Pig up call). Threshold ≥3 triggers a trade; direction is bearish. Adding a second short CL contract aligns with the signal while staying within the 3× equity margin cap.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: futures tape trend +2 (all majors up ~2-3%), Bandar transition CLOSED→OPEN = -3 (bearish), EIA draw +1, Oil Pig UP call -1 (calibration <35% accuracy). Total score = -2 (|score|<3) → no new trade. Existing -1 CL short aligns with bearish bias; hold position.
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HOLD💭 Score breakdown: Futures tape bullish (+2), Hormuz (Bandar) fresh OPEN (bearish) –3, EIA draw (bullish) +1, Oil Pig call UP but calibration ≤35% → -1. Total score = -2. |Score| < 3, so no new contract. Existing short CL aligns with the bearish bias, so we hold the position and take no additional trade.
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HOLD💭 Score: +2 (CL up 2.8% today) +2, Bandar Hormuz fresh OPEN flip: -3, EIA draw: +1, Oil Pig UP call (weighted against): -1. Total = -2 (|score|<3). The board is mildly bearish, matching our existing short CL position (‑1 contract). No new entry, and the loss (~$2.3k) is within acceptable risk, so we hold.
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FUTURES CL💭 SELL 1 CL futures @ $81.78. Score built from: futures‑tape trend neutral (0), Bandar Hormuz fresh transition CLOSED→OPEN (bearish) = -3, EIA weekly draw = +1, Oil‑Pig up call (historically wrong) = -1. Total score = -3 (|score|≥3 → trade direction). Bearish bias => sell 1 CL contract. Position size respects margin limits and fee considerations.
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HOLD💭 Score = -3 (Hormuz fresh transition to OPEN = -3, Oil Pig UP call penalized -1, EIA draw +1). Net bearish bias, but CME is closed so futures cannot fill. Will wait for market open to sell CL.
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HOLD💭 Score = +3 (Hormuz closed, fresh bullish) +1 (EIA draw) -1 (Oil Pig call, weighted against) +2 (strong bullish futures tape) = +5 overall → bullish. However the CME is currently closed, so futures orders cannot be filled. Stock market is also closed, so no ETF entry is allowed now. I will wait for the CME open (Sun 6 pm ET) to place a long CL position (likely 1 contract to stay within equity limits and recent long‑side loss constraints).
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: Futures trend +2 (strong up move), Oil Pig UP call unreliable → -1, Hormuz band (fresh OPEN) -3, EIA draw +1. Total = -3 (bearish). CME is closed so futures cannot fill; stock market is also closed so no ETF orders can be placed. Hold until market opens to act on bearish signal (e.g., sell CL or buy inverse ETF).
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HOLD💭 Score = -1 (Live futures tape +2, Oil Pig UP -1, Bandar transition OPEN -3, EIA draw +1). Absolute score <3 → no conviction to trade. CME is closed, so futures can’t fill; stock market is also closed, so no ETF entry. Holding until next clear signal.
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HOLD💭 Score +5 (Bandar +3 for fresh Hormuz closure, EIA draw +1, Oil‑Pig ‑1, live futures tape +2). Strong bullish setup – plan to BUY 2 CL contracts at the next CME session when fills are allowed.
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HOLD CL💭 Lean: BUY 1 CL — waiting for a live session to act. Score 4 (Bandar +3 for fresh CLOSED flip, EIA draw +1, futures tape bullish +2, Oil Pig calibration down -2). Bullish bias exceeds threshold → open 1 CL contract long. Position sized within equity and margin limits.
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OPEN UCO💭 Score +5 (Live futures tape +2, Hormuz closed flip +3, EIA draw +1, Oil‑Pig opposite call –1). >=3 → bullish. CME closed so futures can’t fill; buy leveraged UCO (2× WTI) up to $30k limit – 730 shares ≈ $29.9k. High‑conviction bullish oil setup, leverage maximizes profit potential.
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SKIP UCO💭 CME and stocks both closed — not queueing an ETF buy to fill on a stale thesis. Score +5 (Live futures tape +2, Hormuz closed flip +3, EIA draw +1, Oil‑Pig opposite call –1). >=3 → bullish. CME closed so futures can’t fill; buy leveraged UCO (2× WTI) up to $30k limit – 730 shares ≈ $29.9k. High‑conviction bullish oil setup, leverage maximizes profit potential.
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HOLD💭 Score = +2 (Live futures trend +2, Bandar 0, EIA +1, Oil Pig -1). Total < 3, so no trade. CME is closed (no futures fills) and no strong ETF signal, so we hold the position.
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HOLD💭 Live futures tape shows a strong bullish move (+2). EIA draw adds +1. Oil Pig’s up call is penalized (-1) due to low calibration. Bandar’s steady OPEN gives 0. Total score = +2, below the 3‑point threshold for a new trade. CME is closed, so futures can’t fill, and no ETF entry meets the required conviction. Hold until the market reopens and the score improves.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: +2 (bullish futures tape trend), +1 (EIA draw, not doubled), -1 (Oil Pig call penalized for low historical accuracy), 0 (Bandar steady OPEN). Total score = +2, below the 3‑point threshold needed to initiate a trade. No futures can be filled while CME is closed, and no ETF entry meets the required conviction, so we hold until the next evaluation.
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HOLD💭 Score calculation: Futures tape bullish (+2), Bandar open steady (0), EIA draw (+1), Oil Pig call UP is historically wrong (-1). Net score +2 (<3) → insufficient conviction to enter a trade. No existing positions, so hold.