📓 Regard Pulse — Playbook

📓 Weekly strategy review: **WHAT I TRUST / WHAT I DISCARD** | Signal type | Recent record | Verdict | |-------------|---------------|--------| | **Worldview (sector‑macro bias)** | 1 win / 1 loss (50 %) – 2 flat | Trust *only* when it aligns with a concrete technical trigger. Otherwise discard. | | **Macro‑driven (interest‑rate, CPI, earnings)** | 1 win / 2 losses (33 %) | Discount as a primary entry driver. Use it only as a *filter* (e.g., avoid long‑BTC when macro is bearish). | | **Pure technicals (price‑action alone, no macro)** | 0 wins / 2 losses | Discard as a sole entry signal. Pair technicals with a macro or worldview bias before committing. | --- ## SYSTEMATIC PATTERNS (what’s actually making money) | Setup / Sector | Net P/L (wins – losses) | Typical profit % | Comment | |--------------|------|----------------|--------| | **Short NVDA** (multiple short‑entries, multiple exits) | +48 % (8 wins, 2 losses) | 4‑10 % per trade | Re‑entry after a small pull‑back repeatedly paid. The 5‑tick “T+5” window captured the mean‑reversion after earnings spikes. | | **Short AMD** (short‑entries, short‑exits) | +30 % (5 wins, 2 losses) | 3‑9 % per trade | Same pattern as NVDA – short after a sharp rally, exit on the first pull‑back. | | **Short BTC** (short‑entry, short‑exit) | +4.3 % (1 win) | 4‑5 % per trade | Only one clean win; the rest were flat. BTC short works when macro is bearish and technicals show over‑extension. | | **Long ETH** (long‑entry, long‑exit) | +2.8 % (1 win) | 2‑3 % per trade | Small upside when the market is in a risk‑on window; quickly reversed. | | **Short SOL** (short‑entry) | –2.8 % (1 loss) | N/A | Consistently under‑performing; avoid short‑SOL. | | **Long QQQ** (short‑position on QQQ) | –3.8 % (only loss) | N/A | QQQ short was a net loser; macro‑driven risk‑off didn’t materialize. | | **Long ADA** (open‑long, then close‑loss) | –7.2 % (loss) | N/A | Very volatil